Cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev tshuaj xyuas qhia tau hais tias kev cia siab rau kev txhim kho kev siv hluav taws xob ua ke nrog CCUS thiab NETs ib leeg tsis zoo li yuav ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev sib sib zog nqus decarbonization ntawm Tuam Tshoj HTA sectors, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kev lag luam hnyav.Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, kev siv dav dav ntawm cov dej huv huv hauv HTA cov haujlwm tuaj yeem pab Tuam Tshoj ua tiav cov pa roj carbon nruab nrab tus nqi zoo piv nrog cov xwm txheej uas tsis muaj cov khoom siv hydrogen huv thiab siv.Cov txiaj ntsig tau muab kev taw qhia muaj zog rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev HTA decarbonization thiab ib qho tseem ceeb siv rau lwm lub teb chaws ntsib cov teeb meem zoo sib xws.
Decarbonizing HTA industrial sectors nrog huv hydrogen
Peb ua ib qho kev ua kom zoo tshaj plaws ntawm kev txo nqi ntawm kev txo qis rau carbon neutrality rau Tuam Tshoj hauv xyoo 2060. Plaub qhov qauv tsim tau txhais hauv Table 1: kev lag luam raws li niaj zaus (BAU), Tuam Tshoj Kev Txiav Txim Hauv Tebchaws raws li Paris Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo (NDC), net- xoom emissions nrog tsis muaj-hydrogen daim ntawv thov (ZERO-NH) thiab net-zero emissions nrog huv hydrogen (ZERO-H).HTA sectors hauv txoj kev tshawb no suav nrog kev tsim cov cement, hlau thiab hlau thiab cov tshuaj tseem ceeb (xws li ammonia, dej qab zib thiab caustic soda) thiab kev thauj khoom hnyav, suav nrog kev thauj mus los thiab kev xa khoom hauv tsev.Cov ntsiab lus tag nrho muaj nyob rau hauv Tshooj Txoj Cai thiab Cov Lus Qhia Ntxiv 1–5.Hais txog kev lag luam hlau thiab hlau, qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas twb muaj lawm hauv Suav teb (89.6%) yog los ntawm cov txheej txheem oxygen-blast furnace, qhov kev sib tw tseem ceeb rau kev sib sib zog nqus decarbonization ntawm qhov no.
kev lag luam.Cov txheej txheem hluav taws xob arc rauv tsuas yog 10.4% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv Suav teb xyoo 2019, uas yog 17.5% tsawg dua lub ntiaj teb qhov nruab nrab thiab 59.3% tsawg dua li ntawd rau Tebchaws Meskas 18.Peb tau txheeb xyuas 60 qhov tseem ceeb steelmaking emissions mitigation technologies hauv cov qauv thiab muab faib ua rau pawg (Daim duab 2a): kev txhim kho cov khoom siv tau zoo, kev ua haujlwm siab tshaj plaws, hluav taws xob, CCUS, ntsuab hydrogen thiab xiav hydrogen (Table 1).Sib piv cov nqi kev ua kom zoo dua qub ntawm ZERO-H nrog NDC thiab ZERO-NH qhov xwm txheej qhia tau hais tias suav nrog cov kev xaiv hydrogen huv yuav ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo txo qis vim yog kev qhia txog hydrogen-direct txo cov hlau (hydrogen-DRI) cov txheej txheem.Nco ntsoov tias hydrogen tuaj yeem pab tsis tau tsuas yog ua lub zog hauv kev tsim cov hlau, tab sis kuj yog cov pa roj carbon-abating txo tus neeg sawv cev ntawm lub hauv paus ntxiv hauv Blast Furnance-Basic Oxygen Furnance (BF-BOF) txheej txheem thiab 100% hauv txoj kev hydrogen-DRI.Raws li ZERO-H, qhov sib faib ntawm BF-BOF yuav raug txo mus rau 34% hauv 2060, nrog 45% hluav taws xob arc rauv thiab 21% hydrogen-DRI, thiab cov hydrogen huv yuav muab 29% ntawm tag nrho cov kev xav tau ntawm lub zog kawg hauv kev lag luam.Nrog rau daim phiaj nqi rau hnub ci thiab cua zog xav taupoob rau US $ 38-40MWh-1 hauv 205019, tus nqi ntsuab hydrogen
tseem yuav poob qis, thiab 100% hydrogen-DRI txoj kev tuaj yeem ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb dua li yav dhau los lees paub.Hais txog kev tsim cov cement, tus qauv suav nrog 47 qhov tseem ceeb mitigation thev naus laus zis thoob plaws cov txheej txheem tsim khoom tau faib ua rau pawg (Cov Lus Ntxiv 2 thiab 3): kev siv hluav taws xob, lwm yam roj, txo qhov sib piv ntawm clinker-rau-cement, CCUS, ntsuab hydrogen thiab xiav hydrogen ( Fig. 2b).Cov txiaj ntsig tau pom tias cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob tau zoo tuaj yeem txo qis tsuas yog 8-10% ntawm tag nrho CO2 emissions hauv cov cement sector, thiab khib nyiab-kub cogeneration thiab oxy-fuel technologies yuav muaj kev txo qis (4-8%).Cov thev naus laus zis los txo qhov sib piv ntawm clinker-rau-cement tuaj yeem ua rau cov pa roj carbon tsawg tsawg (50-70%), feem ntau suav nrog cov khoom siv decarbonized rau cov khoom siv clinker siv granulated blast furnace slag, txawm hais tias cov neeg thuam cov lus nug yog tias cov cement yuav khaws nws cov khoom tseem ceeb.Tab sis cov txiaj ntsig tam sim no qhia tau tias kev siv hydrogen ua ke nrog CCUS tuaj yeem pab cov cement sector ua tiav zero CO2 emissions hauv 2060.
Nyob rau hauv ZERO-H scenario, 20 hydrogen-based technologies (tawm ntawm 47 mitigation technologies) tuaj rau hauv kev tsim cov cement.Peb pom tias qhov nruab nrab carbon abatement nqi ntawm hydrogen technologies yog qis dua li CCUS thiab roj hloov mus kom ze (Daim duab 2b).Tsis tas li ntawd, ntsuab hydrogen xav tias yuav pheej yig dua li xiav hydrogen tom qab 2030 raws li tau tham hauv cov ntsiab lus hauv qab no, nyob ib ncig ntawm US $ 0.7-US $ 1.6 kg-1 H2 (ref. 20), coj cov CO2 txo qis hauv kev muab kev lag luam kub hauv kev tsim cov cement. .Cov txiaj ntsig tam sim no qhia tau tias nws tuaj yeem txo 89-95% ntawm CO2 los ntawm cov txheej txheem cua sov hauv Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam (Fig. 2b, technologies
28–47), uas yog raws li Hydrogen Council qhov kwv yees ntawm 84–92% (ref. 21).Clinker txheej txheem emissions ntawm CO2 yuav tsum tau abated los ntawm CCUS nyob rau hauv ob qho tib si ZERO-H thiab ZERO-NH.Peb kuj simulate siv hydrogen raws li ib tug feedstock nyob rau hauv zus tau tej cov ammonia, methane, methanol thiab lwm yam chemicals teev nyob rau hauv cov qauv piav qhia.Nyob rau hauv ZERO-H scenario, roj-raws li ammonia ntau lawm nrog hydrogen tshav kub yuav nce 20% feem ntawm tag nrho cov khoom nyob rau hauv 2060 (Fig. 3 thiab Supplementary Table 4).Cov qauv muaj xws li plaub hom methanol ntau lawm technologies: thee rau methanol (CTM), coke gas rau methanol (CGTM), natural gas rau methanol (NTM) thiab CGTM / NTM nrog hydrogen tshav kub.Nyob rau hauv ZERO-H scenario, CGTM / NTM nrog hydrogen cua sov tuaj yeem ua tiav 21% kev tsim tawm hauv xyoo 2060 (Daim duab 3).Cov tshuaj kuj tseem muaj peev xwm nqa tau lub zog ntawm hydrogen.Raws li peb cov kev txheeb xyuas kev sib koom ua ke, hydrogen tuaj yeem suav nrog 17% ntawm qhov kawg ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob rau kev siv hluav taws xob hauv kev lag luam tshuaj los ntawm 2060. Nrog rau bioenergy (18%) thiab hluav taws xob (32%), hydrogen muaj lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam. 
decarbonization ntawm Tuam Tshoj HTA tshuaj lom neeg kev lag luam (Fig. 4a).
Daim duab 2 |Cov pa roj carbon mitigation muaj peev xwm thiab cov nqi txo qis ntawm cov thev naus laus zis tseem ceeb.a, Rau pawg ntawm 60 qhov tseem ceeb steelmaking emissions mitigation technologies.b, Rau pawg ntawm 47 qhov tseem ceeb cement emissions mitigation technologies.Cov thev naus laus zis tau teev npe los ntawm tus lej, nrog cov ntsiab lus sib xws suav nrog hauv Cov Lus Ntxiv 1 rau a thiab Cov Lus Ntxiv 2 rau b.Cov qib kev npaj thev naus laus zis (TRLs) ntawm txhua lub thev naus laus zis tau cim: TRL3, lub tswv yim;TRL4, tus qauv me me;TRL5, tus qauv loj;TRL6, tag nrho cov qauv ntawm nplai;TRL7, ua qauv qhia ua ntej ua lag luam;TRL8, ua qauv qhia;TRL10, kev saws me nyuam ntxov;TRL 11, mature.
Decarbonizing HTA tsheb thauj mus los hom nrog huv hydrogen Raws li cov qauv kev tshwm sim, hydrogen kuj muaj peev xwm loj rau decarbonize Tuam Tshoj txoj kev thauj mus los, txawm tias nws yuav siv sijhawm.Ntxiv rau LDVs, lwm hom kev thauj mus los tau txheeb xyuas hauv cov qauv suav nrog cov tsheb thauj mus los, tsheb thauj khoom (lub teeb / me / nruab nrab / hnyav), kev thauj khoom hauv tsev thiab kev tsheb ciav hlau, suav nrog kev thauj mus los hauv Suav teb.Rau LDVs, tsheb hluav taws xob saib kom muaj nqi sib tw yav tom ntej.Hauv ZERO-H, hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) nkag mus rau LDV kev lag luam yuav ncav cuag li 5% hauv 2060 (Fig. 3).Rau cov tsheb npav, txawm li cas los xij, cov tsheb npav HFC yuav raug nqi ntau dua li kev hloov hluav taws xob hauv 2045 thiab suav nrog 61% ntawm tag nrho cov nkoj hauv xyoo 2060 hauv ZERO-H scenario, nrog rau cov hluav taws xob seem (Fig. 3).Raws li cov tsheb thauj khoom, cov txiaj ntsig sib txawv los ntawm tus nqi thauj khoom.Hluav taws xob propulsion yuav tsav ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm tag nrho lub teeb-lub luag haujlwm tsheb thauj khoom los ntawm 2035 hauv ZERO-NH.Tab sis nyob rau hauv ZERO-H, HFC lub teeb-lub luag hauj lwm tsheb yuav muaj kev sib tw tshaj li hluav taws xob lub teeb-duty tsheb los ntawm 2035 thiab muaj 53% ntawm kev ua lag luam los ntawm 2060. Hais txog cov tsheb thauj khoom hnyav, HFC cov tsheb thauj khoom hnyav yuav ncav cuag 66% ntawm cov kev ua lag luam hauv 2060 hauv ZERO-H scenario.Diesel/bio-diesel/CNG (compressed natural gas) HDVs (cov tsheb hnyav) yuav tawm ntawm kev lag luam tom qab xyoo 2050 hauv ob qho tib si ZERO-NH thiab ZERO-H scenarios (Fig. 3).HFC tsheb muaj qhov zoo dua ntxiv ntawm cov tsheb hluav taws xob hauv lawv qhov kev ua tau zoo dua hauv cov xwm txheej txias, tseem ceeb nyob rau sab qaum teb thiab sab hnub poob ntawm Tuam Tshoj.Tshaj li kev thauj mus los, tus qauv qhia pom dav dav ntawm kev siv hydrogen technologies hauv kev xa khoom hauv ZERO-H scenario.Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xa khoom hauv tsev yog lub zog siv zog heev thiab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyuaj decarbonization kev sib tw.Ntxuav hydrogen, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog raws li ib tug
feedstock rau ammonia, muab kev xaiv rau shipping decarbonization.Qhov kev daws teeb meem tsawg tshaj plaws hauv ZERO-H scenario ua rau 65% kev nkag mus ntawm ammonia-fueled thiab 12% ntawm hydrogen-fueled nkoj hauv 2060 (Fig. 3).Hauv qhov xwm txheej no, hydrogen yuav suav txog qhov nruab nrab ntawm 56% ntawm qhov kawg ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob ntawm tag nrho cov kev thauj mus los hauv xyoo 2060. Peb kuj tau ua qauv siv hydrogen hauv cov cua sov hauv tsev (Cov Lus Qhia Ntxiv 6), tab sis nws txoj kev saws me nyuam yog tsis tsim nyog thiab daim ntawv no tsom mus rau. Kev siv hydrogen hauv HTA kev lag luam thiab kev thauj mus los hnyav.Kev txuag nqi ntawm cov pa roj carbon tsis zoo siv cov hydrogen huv Tuam Tshoj lub neej yav tom ntej carbon-nruab nrab yuav yog tus cwj pwm los ntawm kev rov ua kom muaj zog dua qub, nrog rau phasing tawm ntawm cov thee hauv nws thawj lub zog noj (Fig. 4).Non-fossil fuels suav nrog 88% ntawm thawj lub zog sib xyaw hauv xyoo 2050 thiab 93% hauv xyoo 2060 nyob rau hauv ZERO-H.Wind thiab hnub ci yuav muab ib nrab ntawm thawj lub zog siv nyob rau hauv 2060. Qhov nruab nrab, lub teb chaws, qhov huv si hydrogen faib ntawm tag nrho cov zog kawg. Kev noj haus (TFEC) tuaj yeem ncav cuag 13% hauv 2060. Kev txiav txim siab hauv cheeb tsam heterogeneity ntawm kev tsim khoom muaj peev xwm hauv kev lag luam tseem ceeb los ntawm cheeb tsam (Cov lus ntxiv 7), muaj kaum lub xeev nrog hydrogen shares ntawm TFEC siab dua lub teb chaws nruab nrab, suav nrog Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Shandong thiab Guangdong, uas tau tsav los ntawm hnub ci nplua nuj thiab onshore thiab offshore cua kev pab thiab / los yog ntau yam kev lag luam xav tau hydrogen.Nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej ZERO-NH, qhov kev nqis peev ntau ntxiv kom ua tiav cov pa roj carbon nruab nrab mus txog 2060 yuav yog $ 20.63 trillion, lossis 1.58% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv tebchaws (GDP) rau 2020-2060.Qhov nruab nrab kev nqis peev ntxiv rau ib xyoos twg yuav yog nyob ib puag ncig US $ 516 billion ib xyoos.Qhov txiaj ntsig no tau ua raws li Tuam Tshoj txoj kev npaj txo qis US $ 15 trillion mus txog 2050, qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev nqis peev tshiab ntawm US $ 500 billion (ref. 22).Txawm li cas los xij, qhia cov kev xaiv huv hydrogen rau hauv Tuam Tshoj lub zog hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom noj khoom haus hauv ZERO-H qhov xwm txheej ua rau muaj kev nqis peev qis dua US $ 18.91 trillion los ntawm 2060 thiab txhua xyoo.Kev nqis peev yuav raug txo kom tsawg dua 1% ntawm GDP hauv xyoo 2060 (Daim duab.4).Hais txog HTA sectors, tus nqi peev txhua xyoo hauv covcov sectors yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm US $ 392 nphom hauv ib xyoos hauv ZERO-NHscenario, uas yog raws li qhov projection ntawm lub ZogTransition Commission (US $400 billion) (ref. 23).Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias huv
hydrogen tau muab tso rau hauv lub zog hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg, qhov xwm txheej ZERO-H qhia tias tus nqi peev txhua xyoo hauv HTA cov haujlwm tuaj yeem raug txo mus rau US $ 359 billion, qhov tseem ceeb los ntawm kev txo qis kev cia siab ntawm cov nqi CCUS lossis NETs.Peb cov txiaj ntsig tau qhia tias kev siv cov dej huv huv tuaj yeem txuag tau US $ 1.72 trillion hauv cov nqi peev thiab zam kev poob 0.13% hauv GDP tag nrho (2020-2060) piv nrog txoj hauv kev tsis muaj hydrogen mus txog 2060.
Daim duab 3 |Technology nkag mus rau hauv ib txwm HTA sectors.Cov txiaj ntsig hauv qab BAU, NDC, ZERO-NH thiab ZERO-H scenarios (2020-2060).Nyob rau hauv txhua lub xyoo tseem ceeb, qhov tshwj xeeb kev nkag mus rau hauv cov khoom sib txawv yog qhia los ntawm cov xim muaj xim, qhov twg txhua qhov bar yog feem pua ntawm kev nkag mus txog 100% (rau ib qho tag nrho ntxoov ntxoo lattice).Cov thev naus laus zis tau muab cais ntxiv los ntawm ntau hom (pom hauv cov lus dab neeg).CNG, compressed natural gas;LPG, kua roj av roj;LNG, kua natural gas;w/wo, nrog los yog tsis muaj;EAF, hluav taws xob arc rauv;NSP, ncua kev kawm ntawv tshiab preheater qhuav txheej txheem;WHR, pov tseg tshav kub rov qab.
Post lub sij hawm: Mar-13-2023
