Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China‘s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen（1）

Txhaum qhov nyuaj-rau-abate bottleneck nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj txoj kev rau carbon neutrality nrog huv hydrogen

Cov teb chaws xws li Tuam Tshoj tab tom ntsib teeb meem hauv lawv txoj hauv kev rau carbon neutrality: abating emissions hauv kev lag luam hnyav thiab kev thauj mus los hnyav.Muaj ob peb qhov kev tshawb fawb tob txog lub luag haujlwm yav tom ntej rau cov dej huv huv hauv cov 'hard-to-abate' (HTA) sectors.Ntawm no peb ua ib qho kev sib xyaw ua ke dynamic yam tsawg-nqi qauv ntsuas.Cov txiaj ntsig tau pom tias, ua ntej, huv si hydrogen tuaj yeem yog ob qho tib si lub zog loj thiab cov khoom noj khoom haus uas tuaj yeem txo qis carbon emissions ntawm kev lag luam hnyav.Nws kuj tseem tuaj yeem ua rau roj mus txog 50% ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov tsheb thauj khoom hnyav thiab cov tsheb thauj mus los los ntawm 2060 thiab feem tseem ceeb ntawm kev xa khoom.Qhov thib ob, qhov tseeb qhov tseeb huv hydrogen scenario uas ncav cuag 65.7 Mt ntawm kev tsim khoom hauv 2060 tuaj yeem zam tau US $ 1.72 trillion ntawm kev nqis peev tshiab piv nrog qhov tsis muaj hydrogen scenario.Txoj kev tshawb no muab pov thawj ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov dej huv huv hauv HTA sectors rau Tuam Tshoj thiab cov teb chaws ntsib cov teeb meem zoo sib xws hauv kev txo qis emissions kom ua tiav cov hom phiaj zero.

Chieving carbon neutrality yog lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv ntiaj teb no, tab sis tsis muaj 'ib qho loj- haum-tag nrho' txoj hauv kev rau cov teb chaws loj tshaj plaws kom ua tau raws li lub hom phiaj no1,2 .Feem ntau cov teb chaws tsim kho, xws li Tebchaws Meskas thiab cov neeg nyob hauv Europe, tab tom nrhiav cov tswv yim decar bonization tsom tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau lub teeb loj loj vehi cle (LDV) fleets, hluav taws xob tsim hluav taws xob, kev tsim khoom thiab kev lag luam thiab vaj tsev nyob, plaub ntu uas ua ke rau hauv Feem ntau ntawm lawv cov pa roj carbon emissions 3,4 .Lub teb chaws loj hlob emitters, xws li Tuam Tshoj, los ntawm kev sib piv, muaj ntau conomies sib txawv thiab lub zog qauv, yuav tsum tau sib txawv ent decarbonization qhov tseem ceeb tsis yog nyob rau hauv sectoral cov ntsiab lus tab sis kuj nyob rau hauv lub tswv yim kev xaav ntawm tawm tshiab zero-carbon technologies.

Qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov pa roj carbon emissions profile piv nrog cov kev lag luam sab hnub poob yog qhov loj dua emission faib rau kev lag luam hnyav thiab ntau qhov me me rau LDVs thiab kev siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev (Fig. 1).Tuam Tshoj nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no, los ntawm deb, nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm zus tau tej cov cement, hlau thiab hlau, tshuaj thiab tsim cov ntaub ntawv, siv loj npaum li cas ntawm cov thee rau industrial tshav kub thiab zus tau tej cov coke.Kev lag luam hnyav pab txhawb 31% ntawm Tuam Tshoj tam sim no emissions tag nrho, ib feem uas yog 8% siab dua lub ntiaj teb nruab nrab (23%), 17% ntau dua li ntawm Tebchaws Meskas (14%) thiab 13% siab dua li ntawm European Union. (18%) (ref.5).

Tuam Tshoj tau cog lus tias yuav ua kom siab tshaj nws cov pa roj carbon monoxide ua ntej 2030 thiab ua tiav cov pa roj carbon nruab nrab ua ntej 2060. Cov huab cua cog lus no tau txais kev qhuas thoob plaws tab sis kuj tau nug txog lawv cov kev sib raug zoo 6, ib feem vim yog lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm 'hard-to-abate' (HTA) cov txheej txheem hauv Suav teb kev lag luam.Cov txheej txheem no tshwj xeeb suav nrog kev siv hluav taws xob hauv kev lag luam hnyav thiab kev thauj mus los hnyav uas yuav nyuaj rau kev siv hluav taws xob (thiab yog li hloov mus rau lub zog tauj dua tshiab) thiab cov txheej txheem kev lag luam tam sim no nyob ntawm fossil fuels rau cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg.Muaj ob peb txoj kev tshawb fawb tsis ntev los no1– 3 tshawb xyuas decar bonization txoj hauv kev rau carbon neutrality rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev npaj lub zog tag nrho tab sis nrog kev soj ntsuam tsawg ntawm HTA sectors.Thoob ntiaj teb, muaj peev xwm txo kev daws teeb meem rau HTA sectors tau pib nyiam nyob rau xyoo tsis ntev los no 7-14.Lub decarbonization ntawm HTA sector yog nyuaj vim lawv nyuaj rau electrify tag nrho thiab/los yog nqi zoo7,8.Åhman tau hais ntxiv tias txoj kev vam khom yog qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb rau HTA cov haujlwm thiab lub zeem muag thiab kev npaj mus sij hawm ntev rau cov thev naus laus zis siab heev yuav tsum tau 'kaw' cov HTA sectors, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kev lag luam hnyav, los ntawm fossil dependency9.Cov kev tshawb fawb tau tshawb nrhiav cov ntaub ntawv tshiab thiab kev daws teeb meem ntsig txog carbon capture, siv thiab/los yog cia (CCUS) thiab tsis zoo emission technologies (NETs) 10,11.of yam tsawg kawg ib txoj kev tshawb fawb lees paub tias lawv yuav tsum tau txiav txim siab nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev kev npaj11.Nyob rau hauv tsis ntev los no tau tshaj tawm Sixth Assessment Report ntawm Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, kev siv cov 'low-emission' hydrogen tau lees paub tias yog ib qho ntawm cov kev daws teeb meem tseem ceeb rau ntau lub vib nas this rau kev ua tiav net-zero emissions yav tom ntej12.

Cov ntaub ntawv uas twb muaj lawm ntawm cov dej huv huv yog tsom mus rau kev siv thev naus laus zis ntau lawm nrog kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm cov khoom siv-sab nqi 15.('Clean' hydrogen nyob rau hauv daim ntawv no suav nrog ob qho tib si 'ntsuab' thiab 'xiav' hydrogen, yav dhau los ua los ntawm dej electrolysis siv lub zog rov ua dua tshiab, qhov kawg tau los ntawm fossil fuels tab sis decarbonized nrog CCUS.) Kev sib tham ntawm hydrogen thov yog tsom mus rau ntau yam. kev thauj mus los hauv cov teb chaws tsim kho-hydrogen roj cell tsheb tshwj xeeb 16,17.Kev ntxhov siab rau decarbonization ntawm kev lag luam hnyav tau lagged piv nrog rau txoj kev hla chaw nres nkoj, uas cuam tshuam txog cov kev xav tias kev lag luam hnyav yuav
nyob twj ywm tshwj xeeb yog nyuaj rau abate kom txog rau thaum tshiab technological innova tions tshwm sim.Kev tshawb fawb ntawm kev huv (tshwj xeeb tshaj yog ntsuab) hydrogen tau pom tias nws cov thev naus laus zis kom loj hlob thiab cov nqi poob qis17, tab sis cov kev tshawb fawb ntxiv yog xav tau uas tsom rau qhov loj ntawm cov lag luam muaj peev xwm thiab cov kev cai thev naus laus zis ntawm kev lag luam los siv kev loj hlob yav tom ntej ntawm cov khoom siv hydrogen huv 16.Kev nkag siab txog lub peev xwm ntawm cov dej huv huv los ua kom cov pa roj carbon tsis zoo hauv ntiaj teb yuav ua rau muaj kev tsis ncaj ncees yog tias kev txheeb xyuas tsuas yog txwv rau cov nqi ntawm nws cov khoom tsim, nws siv los ntawm cov kev nyiam ua haujlwm nkaus xwb thiab nws daim ntawv thov hauv kev lag luam tsim.Cov ntaub ntawv uas twb muaj lawm ntawm cov dej huv huv yog tsom Feem ntau ntawm cov kev xaiv technology ntau lawm nrog kev txheeb xyuas ntawm cov khoom siv-sab nqi 15.('Clean' hydrogen nyob rau hauv daim ntawv no suav nrog ob qho tib si 'ntsuab' thiab 'xiav' hydrogen, yav dhau los ua los ntawm dej electrolysis siv lub zog rov ua dua tshiab, qhov kawg tau los ntawm fossil fuels tab sis decarbonized nrog CCUS.) Kev sib tham ntawm hydrogen thov yog tsom mus rau ntau yam. kev thauj mus los hauv cov teb chaws tsim kho-hydrogen roj cell tsheb tshwj xeeb 16,17.Kev ntxhov siab rau decarbonization ntawm kev lag luam hnyav tau lagged piv nrog rau txoj kev trans chaw nres nkoj, qhia txog cov lus pom zoo tias kev lag luam hnyav yuav nyob twj ywm tshwj xeeb rau kev txo qis kom txog thaum cov txheej txheem tshiab innova tshwm sim.Kev tshawb fawb ntawm kev huv (tshwj xeeb tshaj yog ntsuab) hydrogen tau pom tias nws cov thev naus laus zis kom loj hlob thiab cov nqi poob qis17, tab sis cov kev tshawb fawb ntxiv yog xav tau uas tsom rau qhov loj ntawm cov lag luam muaj peev xwm thiab cov kev cai thev naus laus zis ntawm kev lag luam los siv kev loj hlob yav tom ntej ntawm cov khoom siv hydrogen huv 16.Kev nkag siab txog qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm cov dej huv huv los ua kom cov pa roj carbon tsis zoo hauv ntiaj teb yuav ua rau muaj kev tsis ncaj ncees yog tias kev tshuaj xyuas tsuas yog txwv rau cov nqi ntawm nws cov khoom tsim tawm, nws cov khoom siv los ntawm kev nyiam ua haujlwm nkaus xwb thiab nws daim ntawv thov hauv kev lag luam tsim.

Kev ntsuam xyuas cov hauv kev rau kev huv hydrogen nyob ntawm reas ntsuam xyuas nws cov kev xav tau yav tom ntej raws li lwm cov roj thiab cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg thoob plaws tag nrho lub zog thiab kev lag luam, suav nrog kev txiav txim siab ntawm txawv teb chaws xwm txheej.Tsis muaj qhov kev tshawb fawb zoo li no rau hnub tim ntawm lub luag haujlwm ntawm cov dej huv huv hauv Tuam Tshoj lub net-zero yav tom ntej.Ua kom tiav qhov kev tshawb fawb qhov sib txawv no yuav pab ua kom pom tseeb txoj hauv kev rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev txo qis CO2 emissions, tso cai rau kev soj ntsuam ntawm qhov ua tau ntawm nws cov lus cog tseg rau xyoo 2030 thiab 2060 decarbonization thiab muab kev taw qhia rau lwm cov kev lag luam loj hlob nrog kev lag luam loj loj.

Daim duab 1 |Carbon emissions ntawm lub teb chaws tseem ceeb thiab analytical mechanism rau hydrogen nyob rau hauv lub zog system.a, Tuam Tshoj cov pa roj carbon emissions hauv 2019 piv nrog Tebchaws Meskas, Europe, Nyiv thiab Is Nrias teb, los ntawm roj.Nyob rau hauv 2019, thee combustion coj qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov pa roj carbon emissions nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj (79.62%) thiab Is Nrias teb (70.52%), thiab roj combustion pab feem ntau rau cov pa roj carbon emissions nyob rau hauv lub tebchaws United States (41.98%) thiab Europe (41.27%).b, Tuam Tshoj cov pa roj carbon emissions hauv 2019 piv nrog Tebchaws Meskas, Tebchaws Europe, Nyiv thiab Is Nrias teb, los ntawm kev lag luam.Cov emissions tso tawm rau sab laug thiab feem ntawm sab xis hauv a thiab b.Qhov feem pua ntawm cov pa roj carbon emissions los ntawm kev lag luam hauv Suav teb (28.10%) thiab Is Nrias teb (24.75%) yog ntau dua li ntawm Tebchaws Meskas (9.26%) thiab Europe (13.91%) hauv 2019. c, Txoj hauv kev nrog hydrogen technologies siv hauv HTA sectors.SMR, chav methane hloov kho;PEM electrolysis, polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis;PEC txheej txheem, txheej txheem photoelectrochemical.

Txoj kev tshawb no nrhiav teb peb cov lus nug tseem ceeb.Ua ntej, dab tsi yog cov teeb meem tseem ceeb rau decarbonization ntawm HTA sectors hauv kev tsim lub teb chaws xws li Tuam Tshoj, txawv ntawm cov teb chaws tsim kho?Puas yog tam sim no mitigation technologies nyob rau hauv HTA sectors (tshwj xeeb tshaj yog hnyav kev lag luam) zoo txaus kom ua tiav Tuam Tshoj cov pa roj carbon neutrality los ntawm 2060?Qhov thib ob, lub luag haujlwm yav tom ntej yog dab tsi rau cov dej huv huv uas yog lub zog nqa khoom thiab cov khoom noj khoom haus hauv HTA cov haujlwm, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj thiab lwm lub teb chaws tsim kho uas nyuam qhuav pib nkag mus rau nws qhov kev tsim khoom thiab siv yav tom ntej?Thaum kawg, raws li dynamic optimization ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub zog tag nrho sys

tem, puas yuav nthuav dav daim ntawv thov ntawm cov dej huv huv hauv HTA sectors yuav raug nqi zoo piv nrog lwm cov kev xaiv?

Ntawm no peb tsim ib qho qauv ntawm kev sib koom ua ke ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob suav nrog cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau thoob plaws cov haujlwm los txheeb xyuas cov txiaj ntsig zoo thiab lub luag haujlwm ntawm cov dej huv huv hauv Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam tag nrho, nrog rau qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb hauv HTA (Daim duab 1c).

Post lub sij hawm: Mar-03-2023